[Radix] Of Politics and Asteroids

[bwisner at igc.org]

Actually, Ken, from my intervention in this RADIX discussion you'll see that I am more fearful of a world dominated by unbridled and hubric consumption that seems to be leading to a state of permanent war!

You are certainly correct, however, about the usefulness of the social science contributions to the conference and book.  I am not sitting with my own contribution here in Dar es Salaam, but I would refer anyone interested not only to Ken's excellent discussion but my own modest attempt to think concretely on the basis of historical analogies about preparedness -- especially dealing with issues of food security on the basis of likely "nuclear winter"-like consequences of a land strike, and temporary evacuation/ resettlement in the case of a more likely oceanic impact.  Both, however, presuppose long warning times, and that is what depends on greater coordinated resources dedicated to observation of NEOs.  And THAT, in turn, is the use of common tax revenues raised by the world's governments that is made less likely by rising war expenditures and mounting debt.

There is, of course, also the issue of even other more pressing uses for whatever money can be clawed back from war making and "defense industries" such as dealing with HIV-AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, stabilizing food security, coastal storm mitigation in rapidly growing coastal cities -- well, in fact, all the Millennium Development Goals.  The problem with investment in warning of NEO impact and preparedness is that it is a low probability event within the kind of time horizon that any political entity can imagine but would have very high impact.  So it becomes the extreme litmus test of the precautionary principle.

This is indeed a difficult problem.

All the best and I hope I can still plan to paddle my canoe from American's North Shore to your home when and if it is necessary for me to plead for political asylum in Canada!

Cheers, BEN


-----Original Message-----
>From: Kenneth Hewitt <khewitt at wlu.ca>
>Sent: Feb 17, 2007 12:53 PM
>To: radix at ecie.org, patrick.meier at tufts.edu
>Subject: Re: [Radix] Of Politics and Asteroids
>
>Dear Patrick, 
>
>A couple of years ago there was a meeting convened to address just this problem. Ben wisner and I contributed papers to the volume that was published by Springer in 2006. Persons with astrophysics and comet-asteroid research backgrounds dominated the proceedings, but quite a few social scientists were invited. There were, I thought, some useful debates but I am not sure how far the meeting influenced the draft UN treaty, or if you'll find the book as helpful as it should be. Contributions like Ben's seem buried in the astro-technological wonders and apocalyptic fears! I attach the summary of my own chapter to indicate some of things that seem to need addressing by RADIX members in relation to your query.
>
>Best wishes
>
>Ken
>
>
>>>> "Patrick Meier" <patrick.meier at tufts.edu> 02/17/07 10:02 AM >>>
> Greetings,
>
>"Should humanity be blamed if an astronomical object, such as a comet or
>asteroid, strikes Earth? The 'no' perspective explains that any location in
>the universe has vulnerability to such objects and that humanity did not
>have a choice in evolving on Earth. The 'yes' perspective contends that
>humanity has the ability to monitor for potential threats in order to
>provide enough lead-time to act to avert calamity, namely by deflecting the
>object's trajectory or by breaking it up" (Kelman 2007: 123).
>
>A draft UN treaty to determine what would have to be done if a giant
>asteroid was on a collision course with Earth is to be drawn up this year.
>Does this now mean that failure to prevent the disaster would be tantamount
>to a political disaster? Does political responsibility begin with political
>recognition of a hazard? Or does political responsibility exist regardless?
>
>http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6370817.stm
>
>Best,
>Patrick
>
>--
>PhD Associate
>Co-Founder APSA Forecasting Group
>The Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy
> http://fletcher.tufts.edu/
>phd/students/Meier.html<http://fletcher.tufts.edu/%20phd/students/Meier.html>
>